As war reshapes the Middle East, its economic aftershocks are landing on Dorset driveways and heating bills, says MP Simon Hoare
Wars, like stones thrown into a millpond, create ripples far further afield than their epicentre. The Israeli/US action in the Middle East continues, with conflicting and confusing messages emanating from the White House.
As I said in the House of Commons during a statement from the Foreign Secretary – Mr Trump declared Iran’s nuclear capability ‘completely destroyed’ in summer 2025, and yet this year Iran poses an imminent threat. He has told us the war is won – and then asks for the help of NATO (help which he had previously said he did not need).
A foreign war without a clear plan and set of objectives is doomed from the outset. All Mr Trump has done is disturb the geopolitical fragility of the Middle East and make it more dangerous for allies of the West. Who is leading the charge? My clear view is that the Israeli Government ‘tail’ is wagging the US Government ‘dog’. Under the cover of Iranian operations, Mr Netanyahu is prosecuting an excessive, civilian-harming campaign in Lebanon, freezing the recently-agreed Gaza peace plan and continuing expansion and domination in the Occupied Territories to the benefit of settlers. These have long been deeply held aspirations at the heart of Israel’s government, and my fear is that many knew the rest of the West’s attention would be focussed on domestic economic matters, thereby giving them carte blanche to roam at will.
Without a plan there is no end game. Iran’s long-term build-up of militarily deployable strategic control of the Strait of Hormuz is creating a chokehold on the international economy and deeply damaging the economies of countries in the Gulf friendly to the West. My anxiety is that, as a result, historically pro-Western countries such as Oman and Bahrain will become measurably less so as they seek to hedge their future bets. The full effects of this reckless armed escapade have yet to be felt in geopolitical terms.
Ripples reach Dorset
The UK is now beginning to feel the impacts of actions thousands of miles away. In the Commons I have taken every opportunity presented to speak up for the needs of my constituents. According to figures I have obtained from the House of Commons Library, 13.7% of North Dorset households are reliant on heating oil or LPG. This compares to a South West average of 7.1% and just 4.9% nationally. Impossible-to-defend price hikes are hitting homes in North Dorset hard. The Government has awarded Dorset Council £474,000 to help support local people. At the time of writing, the Council’s eligibility criteria are still awaited. I have told the Chancellor of the Exchequer that this sum will not touch the sides of rural Dorset’s needs.
Moreover, while I welcome support for North Dorset’s low-income families, it is those ‘just about managing’ who will be left hanging. They cannot be ignored, and I will continue to make their case in Parliament. Unwittingly, the Government will profiteer from the war as VAT and fuel duty takings rocket. I have urged the Chancellor to either cut VAT on domestic heating oil, LPG and red diesel or to ringfence a percentage of the above-expectation VAT receipts to deploy to rural areas to provide further support. I also spoke in a debate in Parliament demanding that the Government’s proposed hike of fuel duty by 5ppl from September be abandoned. Our North Dorset communities know that the use of the car is a necessity rather than a luxury, and the Government needs to understand this better. Rising fuel costs, a freeze in interest rates and rising inflation in food prices are going to hit us all hard. These are the ripples created by the bombing of Iran. They are beyond the control or influence of the Government. As we approach the Easter season, let us pray for better news and better times for all mankind.
